On July 16, Gasgoo learned that according to foreign media reports, Tesla plans to put it in Japan by the end of next yearElectric vehicleThe number of stores doubled to 50.
Tesla’s decision is by no means a simple expansion of scale, but its strategic implementation in response to changes in the global electric vehicle market pattern and deep cultivation of the core market in Asia. In Japan, a market where the automobile industry is highly mature and local brands are absolutely dominant, behind Tesla’s expansion, there are not only accurate judgments of market opportunities, but also multiple structural challenges.
The unique coordinate system of the Japanese tram market: the pure electric penetration rate is the lowest in the world
The Japanese electric vehicle market is in a critical phase of transformation.
According to the Japan Automobile Dealer Association, Japan will be pure electric in 2024Car sales59,736 units, down 33% year-on-year, the first decline in four years.
More notably, the penetration rate of pure electric vehicles in Japan fell below 2%, ranking at the bottom of the world’s major markets.
Hou Fushen, vice chairman and secretary-general of the Chinese Society of Automotive Engineers, has disclosed the data of the domestic automotive industry, China in 2024Automobile production and salesIt exceeded 31 million units for the first time, and exported 5.86 million units, ranking first in the world. New energy vehicle sales reached 12.87 million units, with a penetration rate of more than 40% for the first time. In the automotive product structure, pure electric vehicles account for 60%.
If China’s pure electric vehicle market is too superior and not representative. So, looking at European and American countries, the Slovak News Agency website reported on January 27 that the latest research data from PwC Consulting shows that in 2024, global pure electric vehicle sales will increase to 10.4 million units, an increase of about 14% over the previous year.
In the 21 markets surveyed, the United States sold 1.2 million units, an increase of 7.2%; In the United Kingdom, 382,000 pure electric vehicles were sold, an increase of 21%.
What is the attraction of Japan, such a “barbaric” pure electric market, to Tesla?
You know, in recent years, Tesla’s performance in the global market has not been satisfactory.
The company’s global sales in the second quarter fell 13% year-on-year to 384,122 units, marking the second consecutive quarter of double-digit decline, according to the data. According to data from automotive industry data provider MarkLines, Tesla’s sales in the European market have declined most significantly, with sales falling sharply by 34% year-on-year from January to May this year.
In the Chinese market, although China is still one of Tesla’s most important markets, the rise of local brands is changing the competitive landscape. From January to June this year, BYD’s pure electric vehicle sales surpassed Tesla for the first time, topping the list.
However, in the midst of the decline, the Japanese market has become a bright spot for Tesla.
Although the Japanese official has not yet released specific sales figures, Tesla is expected to sell about 4,600 units in Japan in the first half of this year, a year-on-year increase of 70%. Tesla sold about 5,600 vehicles in Japan last year and aims to become the top seller of imported cars in Japan by 2027, surpassing the current leader Mercedes-Benz (which sold 53,195 vehicles in Japan in 2024).
Source: Tesla
Such a growth trend has undoubtedly given Tesla confidence in the Japanese market and prompted it to accelerate its expansion in Japan.
According to relevant reports, Tesla has just entered 2025 to launch a promotion, and all customers who purchase the new Model Y stock car after January 1 and the car before the end of the first quarter will receive five years of free supercharging service. The starting price of the Model Y in Japan is 5.63 million yen, equivalent to about 262,000 yuan.
In the Japanese market, can Tesla stand up?
However, Tesla still needs to face the reality that even though it has some popularity in the Japanese market, its sales have not yet formed a certain scale.
Tesla’s early online sales of cars in Japan, most of the promotional activities are also carried out online, although in line with its global asset-light strategy, but it is obviously not sincere enough to deeply expand the Japanese market.
The particularity of the Japanese auto market poses a multi-dimensional challenge for Tesla: First, product adaptability. Japan’s roads are narrow and winding, and consumers prefer compact cars, while among Tesla’s existing models, the Model Y’s length of 4.75 meters is close to the upper limit of the size of Japan’s “ordinary car” license plate (4.7 meters), compared to the Honda E of 3.89 meters.
Second, the service system is reconstructed. Japanese consumers have high expectations for after-sales service, and Tesla’s new stores will take on some after-sales functions, but it is doubtful that its technician training speed can keep up with the pace of expansion.
Third, the sustainability of the profit model. In addition to store costs, Tesla’s charging network in Japan adopts its own standards. Since most EV chargers in Japan use the CHAdeMO standard and are not directly compatible with Tesla vehicles, customers who purchase new Tesla EVs will also receive an adapter to charge at CHAdeMO standard charging stations. This means that Tesla must quickly ramp up its sales in the Japanese market to dilute its rising costs, otherwise it may further compress profit margins.
Tesla’s plan to double its stores in Japan is essentially a big gamble of “exchanging scale for market”.
At this critical juncture in the transformation of the global automotive industry, its success depends not only on the intensity of capital investment, but also on whether it can truly crack the “localization code” of the Japanese market – not only to maintain Tesla’s technical genes, but also to integrate into the value system of Japanese consumers. The result of this game may become an important model for global auto giants to lay out mature markets.