Compared with traditional fuel vehicles,New energy vehiclesThermal management has added power batteries, electric drives and other objects, and the system architecture has also undergone major changes, making the cost of bicycles higher.
Gasso Automotive Research InstituteData analyst Feng Sheng said that liquid battery cooling has become the mainstream cooling solution, but the thermal management challenges brought by fast charging technology have prompted the industry to adopt new technologies such as multi-sided cooling. In addition, heat pump air conditioners are widely used in mid-to-high-end models due to their energy efficiency advantages, and the penetration rate is expected to reach 50% this year.
Feng Sheng|Data Analyst of Gasgoo Automotive Research Institute
The following is a summary of the speech:
Industry status: cost surge and policy pressure
New energyDue to the addition of batteries, electric drives and other objects, the architectural complexity of the automotive thermal management system has increased significantly, driving the value of bicycles to 3-4 times that of traditional fuel vehicles. The value of thermal management of traditional fuel vehicles is about 2150-2450 yuan, while the value of PTC system in new energy models has risen to 5850-6050 yuan, the heat pump system (taking R134a as an example) has reached 7150-7350 yuan, and the CO₂ heat pump system has further climbed to 9550-9950 yuan. The increase mainly comes from high-value components such as electric compressors (2500-2700 yuan) and battery cold plates (600 yuan). With the rapid growth of domestic new energy passenger vehicle sales (expected to reach 15.8 million units in 2025), and the increase in the value of bicycles, the thermal management market size will exceed 100 billion yuan in 2025.
Source: Gasgoo
Refrigerant selection is strictly governed by environmental regulations. our country include hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) in comprehensive control, and from July 2029, new applications for announcements of passenger cars will be prohibited from using refrigerants with a GWP value of > 150 (such as R134a). The EU’s PFAS Restriction Proposal will also affect the application of R1234yf, as its degradation product trifluoroacetaldehyde is within the scope of control. Driven by policies, the industry has accelerated its shift to low-GWP refrigerants, such as R744 (CO₂) and R290.
Source: Gasgoo
The competition pattern in the industry has intensified due to the influx of cross-borderers. Traditional international giants (Bosch, Valeo, etc.) dominate system integration, domestic enterprises (Sanhua, Aoteka, etc.) expand to system solutions by virtue of single product advantages, while home appliance companies such as Midea, Gree, and Hisense enter the game through acquisition or self-development, forming a three-way competition situation. Taking electric compressors as an example, in Q1 2025, Fudi Technology (27.1%), Aotejia (20.1%), and Huayu Third Electric (11.2%) will account for nearly 60% of the share, and CR10 will reach 92.8%, with a high industrial concentration.
Source: Gasgoo
In terms of technical path, liquid cooling is the mainstream of battery cooling (accounting for more than 80%), because the heat exchange efficiency and temperature uniformity are better than air cooling. Specifically, liquid cooling in battery thermal management has become the mainstream solution due to high heat exchange coefficient and good temperature uniformity, CATL Kirin battery uses vertical water cooling plate between cells (heat exchange area is 4 times larger) to cope with the challenge of fast charging heat dissipation, Tesla 4680 battery uses serpentine tube + top water cooling plate to achieve double-sided heat dissipation. 5C fast charging further gives birth to multi-faceted cooling technology, Sunwoda flash charging battery achieves three-way heat dissipation at the bottom + side + pole column, and the double large-sided cooling area of Xiaomi CTB battery reaches 7.8m². In addition, the self-heating technology achieves a breakthrough in low temperatures, the high-frequency pulse heating of the deep blue microcore can achieve a temperature rise of 4°C/minute in a -30°C environment, and BYD’s full-scene pulse technology shortens the charging time by 30% through the battery pack partitioned charging and discharging.
Source: Gasgoo
Oil-cooled main drive, liquid-cooled intelligent driving: dual-system heat dissipation upgrade
Electric drive heat dissipation: the proportion of oil cooling rose to 63.3%,HuaweiDriveONE adopts dual active cooling of stator core spray + rotor shaft splash, and BYD’s direct injection oil cooling solution is equipped with 8 adjustable fuel injectors. Changan Zhidian IDD innovates oil-water composite cooling, and the stator water jacket cooling and rotor oil cooling synergistically enhance the cooling effect.
Source: Gasgoo
Intelligent driving system: L3/L4 computing power demand gives rise to liquid cooling rigid demand, Huawei ADS adopts dual-cycle liquid cooling design (main loop heat dissipation 500W), and Xpeng XNGP microchannel liquid cooling plate lamination chip achieves ±3°C temperature control.
Source: Gasgoo
Heat pump air conditioners: the core battlefield of the energy efficiency revolution
In the field of thermal management of new energy vehicles, heat pump air conditioning has become the core technology path to improve vehicle energy efficiency. At present, the industry is showing a trend of government-enterprise collaborative promotion: on the enterprise side, ZEEKR, Tesla, Xiaomi and other brands have achieved the standard configuration of heat pump systems for all models, and BYD’s e-platform 3.0 has also included it in the standard configuration, forming a trend of technology popularization; On the policy side, the National Development and Reform Commission’s “Action Plan for Promoting the High-quality Development of the Heat Pump Industry” clearly requires accelerating the application of heat pump technology in the intelligent thermal management of electric vehicles, focusing on the improvement of battery energy efficiency and battery life. Affected by dual drive, it is expected that the penetration rate of heat pump air conditioners will exceed 50% in 2025, and its technological evolution is deepening in the direction of integration, from the distributed layout of mechanical valves to the integrated control of electronic valves, and finally build a closed-loop management system for the thermal energy of the whole vehicle covering motor electronic control and battery packs.
Source: Gasgoo
Refrigerant Substitution: A Balance of Environmental Protection and Performance
CO₂ working fluid (R744): GWP=1, critical pressure 7.38MPa, and significant advantages in low-temperature performance. The evaporation pressure at -30°C reached 1.4MPa, which was 83% higher than that of R134a. However, the 10MPa high pressure brings technical challenges: the compressor needs to be strengthened sealed (Welling and Aoteka layout high-pressure models), and the valve system has increased pressure resistance requirements (Sanhua has developed a pressure resistance 12MPa electronic expansion valve). The industrialization process has accelerated: the Volkswagen ID series and Audi e-tron have been installed, and Dongfeng and Sanhua have established a technology alliance.
Source: Gasgoo
Cutting-edge direction: cooling revolution and personalized experience
Immersion cooling: SK on demonstrated battery immersion technology, where the coolant directly touches the surface of the battery cells, increasing the heat exchange efficiency by 40% during 5C fast charging. Valeo’s solution uses flame-retardant fluids that combine heat dissipation and safety enhancement. Intelligent and comfortable cockpit: Valeo Smart Cocoon uses biosensors to sense heart rate and dressing index, and zoned temperature control saves 30% energy; Climate Sense establishes™ microclimate zones in the seats/door panels/steering wheel, reducing energy consumption by 50%.
Source: Gasgoo
Future challenges and competition dimensions
The trend of integration will improve the energy efficiency of thermal management systems, and intelligence will optimize energy consumption through integrated solutions for sensing decision-making and execution. Environmental protection refrigerants such as carbon dioxide have attracted attention due to their good low-temperature performance and high safety, but the domestic industry is still in its early stages, and the technology maturity needs to be improved. In addition, new technologies such as immersion cooling and personalized thermal comfort management will also promote the sustainable development of the industry.
The industry faces three barriers: technical bottlenecks: the sealing reliability of the CO₂ heat pump 10MPa high-pressure system needs to be verified; Regulatory risks: The EU PFAS Act may restrict R1234yf degradants, and export models face secondary refrigerant substitution; Competition upgrade: Midea Welling compressor cuts into the ideal/Xpeng supply chain, and traditional giants (Denso, Hanon) transform to integrated solutions. The focus of competition has shifted from price wars: system energy efficiency (COP value exceeds 3.0), control accuracy (Xiaomi SU7 achieves millisecond response), and full life cycle cost (R290 solution cost reduction by 20%).
Source: Gasgoo
(The above content comes from the keynote speech on “New Energy Vehicle Thermal Management Market Analysis and Trend Outlook” delivered by Feng Sheng, a data analyst at the 2025 3rd New Energy Vehicle Thermal Management Forum on June 18, 2025.) ）
